Post # 18: The Story of Iran

Dr Ghossein with you again, it has been a while, but we are reconnecting under a new name "Ghossein Perspective". 

I would like to take you back in time to about 2600 years ago, the time before Islam, the time before Christianity. The Persians defeated the Assyrians, and replaced them as rulers of Mesopotamia, Syria and the Levant(land of the Phoenicians, Arameans, and Israelite). So they invaded, occupied, and plundered the region for about 300 years, till Alexander the Great did to them what they did to the Assyrians. From being a mighty empire, the Persians went back to being a small player merely hanging on to their identity.

The dream of becoming an empire again, is still alive in the minds of the rulers of Iran, but, this is not the 6th century BC, it is the 21st century AD, the strategy of then, will not work now, and the theocrats in Iran are aware of this obstacle.

So they asked themselves what to do? what to do? Since the end goal is the same as that of 2600 years ago, to dominate and control the region, they realized they only need to change their tactics, that is the application of their strategy, to accommodate the laps of time, and the fundamental changes that have occurred, such as - the birth of Islam, where nomads invading the entire region with the purpose of spreading a new religion by any and all means possible, in early seventh century AD - later the split of Islam into Sunna and Shia in the 10th century AD.

Here are few background facts for you:

- Iran is not an Arab country 

- Iran is the largest Shia country in the world, 90% of its population or 88 million are Shia Muslim

- Iran sits in the middle of a Sunni ocean, around its borders live more than half billion Sunni Muslim, add to that more than 300 million Sunni in the rest of the Arab world. These are scary numbers for Iran's mullahs

- Iran presents itself as the saviour and protector of Shia in the region, and around the world. 

- At its eastern border sits the most fanatic Sunni Muslim country, Pakistan with 231 million people and a nuclear power 

- On its northwestern border sits Tukey, 70 million Sunni with a proven history of genocide and ethnic cleansing, a weasel of a country, never to be trusted, with a long history of war with Iran. As a matter of fact, my great great grand father was the minister of war to one of the ottoman sultans, He defeated the Persians in one of the wars. Turkey, a member of NATO with loyalty to no one, but to its fanaticism.

- On its southwestern border Saudi Arabia, world spiritual centre of Sunnis, a contender for regional power and a major rival to Iran

If you examen the above facts, you will conclude that we are looking at a regional struggle for dominance, the Turks, the Saudis, the Egyptians, three Sunni states, and Iran. Faced with this reality, Iran is compelled to act fast, and so it did, with the implementation of its new strategy. 1- An ironclad hold on its population,  2- Direct and indirect control of Shia in the region, 3 - Buying loyalties using its oil wealth, and for control using scare tactics on its population and Shia in Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, Bahrain, Yemen and elsewhere. All this accompanied by the threat of securing a nuclear weapon soon

So, What does Iran do? - First; it diverts Iran's oil money away from its true benefactors, the Iranian people that is, and instead of using that money to develop Iran, they use it to create unrest in the region and around the world. - Second; They have already marked their targets using three weapons 1- Poverty 2- Illiteracy and 3- Fanaticism. Poverty makes people susceptible to bribery, - Illiteracy make the people an easy target for propaganda, and - Fanaticism allows people to create a pseudo cause to fight for, a cause manufactured by Iran's scare tactics spreading rumors of imminent demise of Shia at the hands of Sunnis. Total success in Yemen with the Houthis, Iran's three weapons work on them perfectly, they are the poorest, the most illiterate, and the most fanatic.

In Iraq they have their puppets to make sure Sunnis never rise and govern again, very different situation from when Iran was not allowed to lift its head, until the US paved the way for the mullahs to get to where they are today.

In Lebanon, it is a more complicated situation, it is not a Shia - Sunni conflict, it is the presence of a strong Christian military and political obstacle, no matter how hard they try, and how much money they use to buy some Christian politicians, it will always be a partial success because, for Christians, it is an existential, and a self preservation fact (One of two unbreakable thorns in the thighs of Muslim fanatics in the region)

Iran succeeded to a certain level with the Shia in Lebanon, they have fertile grounds, they created the Hezb Allah group and divided it into two branches, one political the other military, the political branch to control domestic and foreign affaires, the military branch to fight Israel, and to protect Lebanon's interests, they claim. The truth is, there is nothing to protect or defend, it is a pretentious claim by Hezb Allah and Iran.

Iran directly and through its agents recruited members of the Shia community to join Hezb Allah, they paid them $400 - $800 US per month plus perks, they used them where ever needed, in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, Lebanon etc. to create chaos and maintain anarchy, disrupting the work of duly elected governments, because Hezb Allah is the only organization in Lebanon allowed to carry and keep weapons of all calibers, a fact that terrorized the population, all under the pretext of being the defenders of the homeland against their eternal enemy, the Jews. All when Lebanon had no conflict with Israel, and there was nothing for them to defend or fight for, except Iran's ambitions. This fact of fighting for another entity against their own country, make them traitors and mercenaries

As for Syria, the Alawite who are considered Shia, make about 15% of the population in that country, lead by Bashar Al Assad the present president. 

In the 18th century Syria was divided into four states; 

1 - The state of Latakia, majority Alawite and birth place of Assad, and final republic for him to govern if Syria is to be divided in his life time

2 - State of Damascus, mainly Sunni

3 - State of Jabal al Druz, mainly Druz, a sect of Shia

4 State of Aleppo with high percentage of Armenian, Maronite and other Christians

Today, Syria is a broken state, occupied by foreign forces and local opposing factions; 

- Americans in the east and northeast - Russians in Latakia for many years with powerful military installations and state of the art military port - The Turks in the north - Iran in Damascus and wherever they can squeeze themselves - The Kurds in the north and northeast. Add to all that - The Syrian Free Army - Remanence of  ISIS and the likes - Hezb Allah and -The Regular Syrian government Army. This situation makes Syria an easy conduit for the transport and delivery of weapons from Iran to Iraq through Syria to Lebanon to Hezb Allah through the half dozen official Lebanese border customs centres which by the way are controlled by Hezb Allah, and through more than 60 possible illegal entry points on the northern, northeastern and eastern border of Lebanon with Syria, not to forget, that the international airport, the main seaport of Beirut, and many smaller seaports throughout Lebanon especially those in the south are all under Hezb Allah's control

Everyone must understand, that the Iranian regime never cared for the proxies they created, these groups are all tools bought and paid for, to help the mullahs reach their goal and final design for the region   

Going forward, what does the future hold for Iran?

Now that the world knows, Iran has a mediocre military, one does not have to wonder too much about Iran's rush to secure nuclear weapons as a deterrent, because its army will deter no one and drones alone will never win a war.

And here is the truth, Iran's primordial objective is to produce a nuclear weapon, diplomacy and negotiations might delay the inevitable but it will never stop Iran's fundamental mission of becoming a nuclear power, especially that Pakistan and Israel already are, and the Turks are members of NATO. So for those seeking diplomatic resolution for such a profound question, I say, think again. It is clear that Israel and president Trump understand very well the situation, and Russia, China, and North Korea are only happy to oblige and keep using Iran as the scarecrow in the field, as it suits their interests  

1- The upcoming new policies of the US government (New sheriff in town), which caused a rude awakening for Iran from its dream of total hegemony over the region. Soon, Iran will not be able to finance its proxies, it might be asking them to return the unspent cash they might still have. The noose will be so tight around the mullahs' necks, they will have no choice but to change their focus 

2- The mullahs, and the republican guard must be shaking in their plastic slippers now, for this is the beginning of the end of their regime

3 - Iran will never become a nuclear power, for Putin and China will never sell the cow as long as they are selling its milk

4 - Iran will never realize its ambition of a new Persian empire

5 - The continuation of the regime's present internal and external policies will put Iran on a dangerous collision course with its neighbours; Pakistan, Afghanistan, the Turks, the Kurds within and around its borders, as well as the Arabs

6 - Russia will end up selling Iran for a better prize

7 - Russia will no longer need Iranian drones

8 - China will stop buying Iranian oil

9 - Iran will be isolated

10 - A new regime will bring Iranians back to their glory days, contributing to the international community, the best and brightest minds to help humanity move closer to peace

11 - The mullahs, all of them should be held accountable 

12 - Perhaps crown prince Riza Pahlavi should take over, I believe He learned the true value of democracy, from the mistakes of his father the late Shah of Iran, He will bring Iran back to its glory days, a great nation, well respected in the international community, a shining bright light with brilliant, innovative minds, and peace loving people. Just get rid of the mullahs' regime, they are leading Iran into the abyss 

13 - The Ayet Allah is ill, his days are numbered, time is ripe for an uprising

14 - It is of the utmost importance to keep in mind, that the weakening of Iran in the region, will lead to the natural rise of a Sunni agenda, especially by the Turks, creators of ISIS, and now hosting the Hamas leadership. So remember, what is needed; just a regime change in Iran. Once this is achieved, the new regime should be accorded total support, with the dignity of the Iranian people protected, and the territorial integrity of Iran intact. Otherwise the cycle turns, and Sunni ambitions of regional hegemony will rise, and the prime victim will be Lebanon plunged in an ugly civil/religious war, followed by Syria, Iraq, Yemen, etc. 

15 - The powerful tools used for years by politicians in the Arab World, especially Egypt are;  a - the utopian, idiotic, unrealistic idea of Pan Arabism,  b - Religion to galvanize the masses where fanaticism run rampant, leading to religious, cultural and ethnic unrest, oppression, then atrocities with the clandestine support of governments  

16 - One must never forget that the above mentioned tools, will clear the way for the reappearance of the super fanatic Sunni state sponsored terrorist organizations, hence back to square one, and this time the square will be wider and more powerful, because these groups follow a doctrine deeply rooted in violence and hatred for all, otherwise a Hezb Allah on steroids 

Essential to keep in mind that, a power balance in the region must be maintained, and the grave mistake of the early1990s that allowed for the weakening of Iraq must never be repeated.

 Enjoy post 18, we shall reconnect on post 19